China could be preparing to hit the accelerator on currency appreciation. But before we all get carried away, the yuan isn't necessarily going to go up forever.

　　中國(guó)可能正在為踩下人民幣升值的油門做準(zhǔn)備，但在所有人歡呼雀躍之前，請(qǐng)別忘了，人民幣不一定永遠(yuǎn)保持升勢(shì)。

　　You can see that view in the market's ambivalence toward longer-dated yuan debt sold in Hong Kong. The tenor of most of those products is between one and three years. Investors appear confident of appreciation over that time frame, bankers say. After that, it's a crap shoot.

　　Associated Press在山東臨沂一家農(nóng)村信用合作社，一位職員正在點(diǎn)人民幣。市場(chǎng)對(duì)于在香港出售的較長(zhǎng)期人民幣計(jì)價(jià)債券的態(tài)度搖擺不定，這其中就體現(xiàn)了上述觀點(diǎn)。那些人民幣產(chǎn)品中，大多數(shù)是一年至三年期。銀行業(yè)人士說(shuō)，似乎投資者對(duì)這段時(shí)期內(nèi)的人民幣升值抱有信心，而超過(guò)這個(gè)時(shí)間段，就成了擲骰子的賭博游戲。

　　They're right to be cautious. Most people think the government has the wherewithal to stave off a future banking crisis, but given the volume of China's lending in recent years as part of an officially sanctioned stimulus plan, the chances that things get ugly and lead to currency stasis or a selloff aren't negligible.

　　投資者所持的謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度沒(méi)錯(cuò)。大多數(shù)人認(rèn)為，中國(guó)政府有能力避免日后發(fā)生銀行危機(jī)，但考慮到中國(guó)近年來(lái)的放貸數(shù)量(這是官方認(rèn)可的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的一部分)，形勢(shì)變?cè)阋约俺霈F(xiàn)貨幣滯漲或拋售的可能性不容忽視。

　　In the shorter term, of course, the consensus is that the yuan (also known as the renminbi, or RMB) is a one-way bet. What's more, its gains look ready to pick up speed.

　　當(dāng)然，短期來(lái)看，目前一致認(rèn)為人民幣是一個(gè)單向賭注。另外，人民幣的升值步伐看似要加快。

　　The case for faster yuan appreciation got a boost from comments by Chinese officials, including Premier Wen Jiabao and a top official at the People's Bank of China, suggesting a stronger currency could be a weapon against inflation. China's consumer-price index rose 5.4% in March and has been gathering steam despite repeated credit tightening by the country's central bank. A stronger yuan lowers the effective cost of imported goods. Li-Gang Liu, China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, predicts pressure from rising prices for imports like oil, iron ore and soybeans will push the yuan-dollar rate 6% higher for the year.

　　人民幣或?qū)⒖焖偕祻闹袊?guó)國(guó)務(wù)院總理溫家寶和中國(guó)央行行長(zhǎng)周小川等多位中國(guó)官員講話的提振，暗示人民幣升值或許是抵御通貨膨脹的有力武器。3月份中國(guó)消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)(CPI)同比升5.4%，盡管央行一再收緊信貸政策，但CPI的升勢(shì)絲毫未減。人民幣升值可減少進(jìn)口商品的實(shí)際成本。澳新銀行(Australia & New Zealand Banking Group)研究中國(guó)問(wèn)題的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家劉利剛預(yù)測(cè)，石油、鐵礦石和大豆等進(jìn)口商品價(jià)格不斷上漲帶來(lái)的壓力將推動(dòng)人民幣兌美元今年累計(jì)升值6%。

　　The one-way bet makes things challenging for Chinese policy makers. Even if they see the logic behind pushing the currency higher, they worry that speculators lured by the certainty of the bet will find their way around the country's capital controls (as they often have) and flood their economy with potentially destabilizing “hot money.”

　　對(duì)于中國(guó)決策者而言，單向押注人民幣可使情況變得富于挑戰(zhàn)性。即使他們知道提高人民幣匯率的做法是有道理的，他們也仍會(huì)擔(dān)心投機(jī)者因受到押注必贏的誘惑，會(huì)想盡辦法避開(kāi)中國(guó)的資本控制(這是他們的經(jīng)常做法)，并讓那些可能極不穩(wěn)定的“熱錢”大規(guī)模涌入中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)。

　　This is one reason some speculate China's leaders might opt for a one-time, hefty currency revaluation of, say, 10%. The idea is that such a move would eliminate appreciation pressure in one fell swoop and allow the PBOC a chance to keep the market guessing as to the yuan's future direction. However, there's no indication the idea is anything more than talk, and given the damage such a move would inflict on Chinese exporters and employment, China's penchant for gradualism is probably a safer bet.

　　這是為什么有些人推測(cè)中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可能選擇讓人民幣一次性大幅升值10%的一個(gè)原因。這樣做將一舉消除人民幣的升值壓力，也使得中國(guó)央行有可能讓市場(chǎng)持續(xù)猜測(cè)人民幣的未來(lái)走勢(shì)。然而，沒(méi)有跡象顯示這種想法只是說(shuō)說(shuō)而已。鑒于此舉給中國(guó)出口商和就業(yè)將帶來(lái)負(fù)面影響，中國(guó)偏愛(ài)的漸進(jìn)式舉措可能是更保險(xiǎn)的做法。

　　Expectations of yuan appreciation are the fuel that is driving rapid growth in the offshore market for China's currency, particularly in Hong Kong. International investors are piling money into offshore-yuan bonds despite yields far lower than those available to domestic investors. The reason is their conviction that a strengthening renminbi will goose their dollar-based returns to levels well beyond what they can earn with an investment in U.S. dollars, or Hong Kong dollars, which are pegged to the greenback.

　　人民幣升值預(yù)期是人民幣離岸市場(chǎng)、特別是在香港的離岸市場(chǎng)迅速成長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)力。雖然人民幣離岸債券收益率遠(yuǎn)低于境內(nèi)投資者可獲得的收益率，但境外投資者依然在把大量資金投入人民幣離岸債券。原因在于，他們相信人民幣的升值將會(huì)使他們以美元計(jì)算的投資回報(bào)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于用美元或與美元掛鉤的港元投資所能獲得的回報(bào)。

　　'The reason that RMB internationalization is exciting in Hong Kong, that people are playing it, is the appreciation,' says Romnesh Lamba, executive vice president and head of market development at Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., the owner of Hong Kong's stock exchange.

　　香港交易及結(jié)算所有限公司(Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd.)行政副總裁兼市場(chǎng)發(fā)展執(zhí)行總監(jiān)羅力(Romnesh Lamba)說(shuō)，人民幣國(guó)際化在香港激動(dòng)人心，大家都在參與，原因就在于升值。

　　HKEx is taking advantage of those expectations by launching its newest toy, the first yuan-denominated stock sold outside mainland China, which begins trading on Friday. “If you take the appreciation away, they may not play it,” he says, “and the equity product may never take off.”

　　為了利用人民幣升值預(yù)期獲利，港交所推出它的最新產(chǎn)品，也就是第一只在中國(guó)內(nèi)地以外發(fā)行的人民幣股票。這只股票將在周五開(kāi)始交易。羅力說(shuō)，如果沒(méi)有升值因素，他們可能就不會(huì)參與其中了，股權(quán)產(chǎn)品可能也永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法起步。

　　Even short term, though, appreciation may not be such a sure thing.

　　但是，哪怕就是短線來(lái)看，升值也不是一件十分確定的事情。

　　Robert Reilly, co-head of flow fixed income and currencies for Asia at Société Générale, calls it a high-risk assumption. He points to the potential impact on global markets from sovereign-debt problems in Europe and mounting concerns over the outlook for U.S. government debt.

　　法國(guó)興業(yè)銀行(Societe Generale)固定收益和外匯業(yè)務(wù)亞洲區(qū)聯(lián)席負(fù)責(zé)人將人民幣的升值稱為一種高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)假設(shè)。他列舉的理由包括歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)可能對(duì)全球市場(chǎng)造成的影響，以及人們對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)債前景越來(lái)越濃重的擔(dān)憂。

　　"If we see that hit U.S. investor confidence, and that hits equities, all bets are off the table for China to appreciate the currency," he says.

　　他說(shuō)，如果美國(guó)投資者信心因此受到打擊，股市受到打擊，那么就無(wú)法指望中國(guó)允許人民幣升值了。

　　For now, underpinned by widespread confidence in the appreciation story, the yuan's internationalization marches on. Renminbi deposits in Hong Kong's banking system could reach one trillion yuan ($154 billion) by the end of the year, some economists believe, up from 407 billion yuan at the end of February. At that point, the market might be deep enough to weather a change in the currency's outlook.

　　目前在普遍的升值預(yù)期支撐下，人民幣國(guó)際化繼續(xù)推進(jìn)。一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家相信，香港銀行系統(tǒng)的人民幣存款有望在年內(nèi)從2月底的4,070億元增至1萬(wàn)億元（合1,540億美元）。屆時(shí)市場(chǎng)的深度或許足以承受人民幣匯率預(yù)期的變化。

　　Still, "if the RMB were to be a depreciating currency, there would probably be a lack of strong demand for that," says Mr. Li, the ANZ economist. "Definitely the market would turn."

　　但澳新銀行的劉利剛說(shuō)，如果人民幣是在貶值，可能就不存在強(qiáng)勁需求，市場(chǎng)肯定會(huì)發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)折。