For Asian market watchers, there’s been a pretty clear divergence across emerging markets in the past few months. Known either as the ‘north-over-south’ trade, or the exporter trade, investors shifted their money out of domestically driven southeast Asia, and into the export markets of South Korea and Taiwan.

　　對(duì)亞洲股市觀察人士來(lái)說(shuō)，過(guò)去幾個(gè)月里，各新興市場(chǎng)股市的表現(xiàn)出現(xiàn)了非常明顯的背離。投資者紛紛把資金撤離東南亞的國(guó)內(nèi)驅(qū)動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，轉(zhuǎn)投韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣這兩個(gè)出口導(dǎo)向型市場(chǎng)。這被稱(chēng)之為“買(mǎi)北拋南”交易或出口方交易。

　　But, if the past few days are anything to go by, the trade may already be reversing.

　　不過(guò)，如果從過(guò)去幾天的情況來(lái)判斷，上述交易趨勢(shì)可能已發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)。

　　Since late November, southeast Asian markets have been in volatile mood. The big bull markets of 2010 – Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand – all seemed to lost their vim. Some trading sessions in the new year have seen heavy selling. Investment downgrades have followed suit.

　　去年11月底以來(lái)，東南亞股市一直處在大幅波動(dòng)之中。2010年經(jīng)歷了大牛市的印尼、菲律賓和泰國(guó)股市，似乎全都喪失了動(dòng)力。在今年的某些交易日，曾出現(xiàn)猛烈的拋售。東南亞股市的投資評(píng)級(jí)也隨之遭到下調(diào)。

　　As investment banks unveiled their 2011 forecasts, there was a near universal consensus – sell SE Asia, buy Korea and Taiwan. Both of those markets went on a run, with investors betting that a US recovery would boost export-driven economies. Citi’s Markus Rosgen says that the north over south divergence will continue until the middle of 2011.

　　隨著投行紛紛發(fā)布2011年的預(yù)測(cè)，幾乎所有人都形成了一個(gè)共識(shí)：賣(mài)出東南亞股票，買(mǎi)進(jìn)韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣股票。由于投資者押注美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將提振出口驅(qū)動(dòng)型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣股市都出現(xiàn)了一波漲勢(shì)。花旗(Citi)的樂(lè)志勤(Markus Rosgen)表示，亞洲北部地區(qū)股市相對(duì)南部的背離，將一直持續(xù)到2011年年中。

　　But February has so far told a different story. In Taiwan, for example, foreign investors have sold a net T$83.3bn so far this month, compared to buying net T$99.3bn in January. This ended a five-month run of net inflows from foreign investors into the Taiwan stock market.

　　但步入2月份以來(lái)，我們卻看到了另一番景象。例如在臺(tái)灣，2月份迄今為止海外投資者已凈賣(mài)出價(jià)值833億元新臺(tái)幣的臺(tái)灣股票——相比之下，他們?cè)?月份凈買(mǎi)入了價(jià)值993億元新臺(tái)幣的臺(tái)灣股票。海外資金連續(xù)5個(gè)月凈流入臺(tái)灣股市的趨勢(shì)由此畫(huà)上了句號(hào)。

　　On Wednesday alone they sold net T$1.57bn and the Taiex fell almost 2 percent.

　　僅在周三一天，海外投資者就凈賣(mài)出了價(jià)值15.7億元新臺(tái)幣的臺(tái)灣股票，臺(tái)灣加權(quán)指數(shù)(Taiex)下跌了近2%。

　　UBS says it’s time to get out of the trade, this from Niall MacLeod and his team.

　　瑞銀(UBS)的尼爾·麥克勞德(Niall MacLeod)及其團(tuán)隊(duì)表示，現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候退出“買(mǎi)北拋南”交易了。

　　"The combination of what we expect to be peaking leading indicators in the coming months allied with reasonably firm relative valuations leaves little left in the tank in our view for what was essentially a 'macro' trade that started last November: the 'exporter trade' looks to be largely behind us."

　　“我們認(rèn)為，我們所預(yù)期的、在未來(lái)數(shù)月會(huì)讓領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)見(jiàn)頂?shù)母鞣N因素，以及適度堅(jiān)挺的相對(duì)估值，已讓這波始字去年11月份、本質(zhì)上屬于‘宏觀’交易的趨勢(shì)幾乎完全喪失了動(dòng)力：看來(lái)，‘出口方交易’基本上已成為過(guò)去時(shí)。”

　　In the process, UBS have downgraded their views of Korea and Taiwan to underweight.

　　在此過(guò)程中，瑞銀已將韓國(guó)和臺(tái)灣股市的評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)為“減持”。

　　"Cyclicals in general and Taiwan and Korea have tended to struggle in relative terms after leading indicators peaked – whilst the absolute valuations are not yet 'expensive', relative to the rest of Asia the PB is back to near peak levels since 2003. As such we cut the markets to underweight."

　　“在領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)見(jiàn)頂之后，臺(tái)灣、韓國(guó)股市與整體股市的周期性因素已成此消彼長(zhǎng)之勢(shì)——盡管這兩個(gè)股市的絕對(duì)估值尚稱(chēng)不上‘昂貴’，但它們相對(duì)亞洲其余股市的市凈率已回升至2003年以來(lái)的最高水平附近。據(jù)此，我們把臺(tái)灣、韓國(guó)股市的評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)為減持。”

　　While investors who are long these markets might not have much cause for cheer, it may come as welcome news to both central banks and corporates in both countries.

　　雖然做多這兩個(gè)股市的投資者可能沒(méi)有多少理由為此感到高興，但它對(duì)臺(tái)灣和韓國(guó)的央行與企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，或許算得上是好消息。

　　Taiwan’s central bank spent the better part of last year fending off hot money inflows that pushed the Taiwan dollar higher against the US dollar, breaching its key T$30 level and reaching a high of 28.8 – a level not seen since the before the Asian financial crisis. But since the start of the month, the Taiwan dollar has weakened, closing on Wednesday at 29.57 to the US dollar.

　　在去年的大部分時(shí)間里，臺(tái)灣央行都在抵御熱錢(qián)流入。熱錢(qián)推高了新臺(tái)幣兌美元匯率，使其突破了1美元兌30元新臺(tái)幣關(guān)口，升至1美元兌28.8元新臺(tái)幣的高點(diǎn)——這是自亞洲金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前夕以來(lái)的最高水平。但自本月初以來(lái)，新臺(tái)幣匯率已經(jīng)走低，周三收于1美元兌29.57元新臺(tái)幣。

　　Export-oriented companies who have been impacted by the rising Taiwan dollar are also breathing a sigh of relief. Morris Chang, chief executive of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, told reporters on Wednesday that the outflow of foreign hot money means that the Taiwan dollar’s exchange rate should become more stable over the next few months to half a year.

　　受新臺(tái)幣走高沖擊的出口導(dǎo)向型企業(yè)，也因此松了一口氣。臺(tái)積電(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)首席執(zhí)行官?gòu)堉抑\(Morris Chang)周三告訴記者，外國(guó)熱錢(qián)的流出，意味著新臺(tái)幣匯率在未來(lái)數(shù)月至半年的時(shí)間里應(yīng)該會(huì)變得更加穩(wěn)定。臺(tái)積電是全球最大的合同芯片制造商。

　　While events in the middle east and north Africa have surely hit investor sentiment towards all emerging markets, it’s worth noting that the two star performers since November have both fallen further than India since the start of the month. Indonesia, meanwhile, is back in positive territory.

　　中東和北非爆發(fā)的事件無(wú)疑讓投資者對(duì)所有新興市場(chǎng)的信心受到了影響，但值得注意的是，去年11月以來(lái)表現(xiàn)搶眼的臺(tái)灣與韓國(guó)股市，本月初以來(lái)的跌幅卻雙雙超過(guò)印度股市。與此同時(shí)，印尼股市已重拾升勢(shì)。