Global markets paid scant attention to the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions. Both were seen as lacking systemic economic and financial significance.

　　全球市場之前對埃及和突尼斯發(fā)生的革命不太在意，認為這兩個國家在經濟和金融方面不具備系統重要性。

　　This is now changing as youth-inspired uprisings spread to other countries in North Africa and the Middle East. While political and social issues rightly dominate the headlines, this past weekend could also prove a tipping point when it comes to the global economy; and there is little that western countries can do to offset short-term stagflationary winds.

　　隨著這些青年起義活動向北非和中東其它國家蔓延，上述情況正在發(fā)生變化。雖然報紙的頭版頭條理所當然地被政治和社會問題所主宰，但對于全球經濟來說，過去一周或許是一個轉折點。而在如何阻擋短期內的“滯脹”風潮上，西方國家基本上無能為力。

　　It is understandable that Egypt and Tunisia had essentially not registered on the markets’ traditional scale of systemic influence. The two countries are not significant global economic powers; they do not owe much money to western banks and governments; and they are not large exporters of commodities.

　　本質上講，市場此前并沒有把埃及和突尼斯歸入具有系統重要性的傳統國家范疇，這一點情有可原。這兩個國家并非重要的世界經濟大國；沒有欠西方銀行和政府很多錢；也不是重要的大宗商品出口國。

　　Yet Egypt and Tunisia are catalysts for a broader change that is gaining systemic importance as protests spread. Two developments are particularly important when it comes to global demand and price dynamics. With an oil exporter such as Libya in the grips of a popular uprising, oil prices will rise to reflect much greater supply uncertainties. And with sectarian issues now on display in Bahrain, geopolitical risks are higher for the region – especially as other countries seek to influence events in the kingdom.

　　然而，埃及和突尼斯起到了催化劑的作用。它們激起了一種范圍更大的變化，隨著示威浪潮蔓延，這種變化的系統重要性不斷增強。就全球需求和價格走勢而言，有兩個動向尤為重要。首先，當像利比亞這樣的石油出口國陷入民眾起義的浪潮，將導致石油供給不確定性大為加強，從而推高油價。其次，鑒于巴林正顯現出派系問題，該地區(qū)的地緣政治風險明顯加劇——尤其是在其它國家正謀求對這個王國的局勢施加影響的情況下。

　　In the short run, regional developments will be stagflationary for the global economy due to three main factors: First, higher oil prices will increase production costs and act as a tax on consumers. Second, greater stockpiling around the world will intensify pressures on commodities as a whole. Third, the region will be a smaller market for other countries’ exports.

　　短期內，該地區(qū)局勢將給全球經濟帶來滯脹影響，這主要有三點原因：第一，油價上漲將拉高生產成本，加重消費者負擔；第二，全球各地加大囤貨力度，這將加劇所有大宗商品的壓力；第三，該地區(qū)從其他國家進口的商品將會減少。

　　This economic reality is far from encouraging for western countries. Domestically, having countered aggressively the impact of the global financial crisis, they have little room left for further demand stimulus.

　　對西方國家來說，這種經濟現實不容樂觀。在積極抵御全球金融危機的沖擊之后，西方各國已經沒有余力再出臺刺激需求的舉措。

　　In the next few days, markets will react to the changed outlook. Higher commodity prices will be accompanied by greater risk aversion in the equity and credit markets. Over time, however, such market apprehension is likely to give way. In the long term, after all, democracy and individual freedoms are the best drivers of prosperity.

　　未來幾天，市場將順應形勢的變化而作出反應。伴隨著大宗商品價格走高，股市和信貸市場上的避險意識將會增強。不過，隨著時間推移，這種市場憂慮情緒有望緩解。畢竟，從長遠來看，民主和個體自由是繁榮的最佳推進器。