China and the US have the basis for an agreement at the summit of the Group of 20 leading nations next month on setting targets to cut trade imbalances, according to an adviser to the Chinese central bank.

　　中國央行的一名顧問表示，在下月20國集團(tuán)(G20)峰會期間，中美兩國在確立削減貿(mào)易失衡的目標(biāo)方面具有達(dá)成一致的基礎(chǔ)。

　　Li Daokui, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee and professor at Tsinghua University, said there had been “good progress” at the weekend meeting of G20 finance ministers in South Korea which had moved debate from the “surface issue” of nominal exchange rates to “talking about the substance of rebalancing world trade”.

　　中國央行貨幣政策委員會委員、清華大學(xué)教授李稻葵表示，上周末在韓國舉行的G20財長會議取得了“良好進(jìn)展”，各方的辯論超越了名義匯率這一“表面議題”，轉(zhuǎn)向了“討論調(diào)整世界貿(mào)易平衡的實質(zhì)”。

　　“China should not be afraid of numerical targets for reducing its trade surplus,” Mr Li told the Financial Times. “China is well positioned politically and economically to make this adjustment.”

　　“中國不應(yīng)懼怕減少貿(mào)易盈余的數(shù)字目標(biāo)，”李稻葵對英國《金融時報》表示。“中國在政治上和經(jīng)濟(jì)上都處于有利地位，能夠做出這種調(diào)整。”

　　China has pushed back strongly against US pressure for a rapid appreciation of its currency, the political and economic dispute at the heart of fears about a global “currency war”.

　　中國一直強(qiáng)烈抵制美國要求讓人民幣快速升值的壓力，中美之間的這一政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)糾紛，正是各方擔(dān)心全球“匯率戰(zhàn)爭”的癥結(jié)所在。

　　However, although Mr Li is an adviser to the central bank rather than a policymaker, his comments suggest support in China for the US proposal of setting limits on current account surpluses and deficits at about 4 per cent of GDP. “I was very encouraged by the G20 meeting,” Mr Li said. “It is now possible for the two governments [the US and China] and other governments to have a good understanding.”

　　不過，雖然李稻葵并非政策制定者，而是中國央行的一名顧問，但他的言論似乎表明，中國方面有人支持美方的提議，即對經(jīng)常賬戶盈余或赤字設(shè)定上限，使其不超出國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的4%左右。“最近這次G20會議使我深受鼓舞，”李稻葵表示。“現(xiàn)在（中美）兩國政府乃至其它國家的政府有可能達(dá)成良好的諒解。”

　　Several articles in the Chinese business press have also indicated that the government would be comfortable with the surplus target at that level.

　　中國財經(jīng)報刊上的數(shù)篇文章也暗示，中國政府將能夠接受上述水平的盈余目標(biāo)。

　　New Delhi is less enthusiastic. Pranab Mukherjee, India’s finance minister, said that the G20 needed to adopt “a formula based on country specific solutions” and avoid a “straitjacket” of general numerical targets.

　　印度方面則沒有那么熱情。印度財長普拉納博•穆克吉(Pranab Mukherjee)表示，G20需要采納“基于各國具體解決方案的公式”，避免普遍數(shù)字目標(biāo)的“緊箍咒”。

　　He warned that any broad policy guidelines to level out deficits and surpluses, might endanger the “normal” functioning of the global economy.

　　他警告稱，任何旨在抑制赤字和盈余的寬泛政策指引，都有可能危及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的“正常”運(yùn)行。

　　Mr Mukherjee said that India had no plans to impose limits on capital flows into its economy in spite of concerns about accommodative monetary policy in developed economies pushing volatile funds into emerging markets.

　　穆克吉表示，印度沒有限制資本流入本國經(jīng)濟(jì)的計劃，盡管有人擔(dān)心，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的寬松貨幣政策正將善變的資金推向新興市場。

　　“I am confident that with the flow of foreign institutional investment, invisibles and foreign exchange availability we will be able to contain the current account deficit at between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent of GDP,” he said. The Chinese government has said little in public on the US plan, although Yi Gang, a central bank deputy governor, said two weeks ago that policymakers aimed to reduce the surplus to 4 per cent of GDP over the next three to five years.

　　“我相信，按照目前的外國機(jī)構(gòu)投資流動、無形收支項目以及外匯可獲得性，我們將能夠把經(jīng)常賬戶赤字遏制在GDP的3%至3.5%，”他表示。中國政府迄今在公開場合對美方的計劃幾乎未作任何表示，不過央行副行長易綱兩周前表示，政策制定者們力求在今后三至五年內(nèi)，將中國的盈余削減至GDP的4%。

　　Mr Li said that China’s external surplus was already falling because of rising wages, strong consumption and industries relocating to inland provinces. “Market forces are pushing China to make this adjustment, whether we want to or not,” he said.

　　李稻葵表示，中國的國際收支盈余已經(jīng)在下降，原因是國內(nèi)工資不斷上漲、消費(fèi)強(qiáng)勁，以及多個產(chǎn)業(yè)正向內(nèi)陸省份轉(zhuǎn)移。“市場力量正在推動中國做出這一調(diào)整，不管我們是否愿意。”

　　In the past, China has usually opposed targets imposed from outside, but it regularly uses self-imposed targets for domestic economic management.

　　以往中國通常反對外部施加的目標(biāo)，但在國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)管理中，經(jīng)常使用自我施加的目標(biāo)。