美國國債不愁賣 沒有中國還有日本中國一直在促使其2.5萬億美元的外匯儲備向美元之外多元化，部分人士開始擔(dān)心，中國減少購買美國國債會導(dǎo)致美國利率上升，從而使美國政府舉債更困難。

　　但是周三日本在外匯市場對美元的購買表明，中國的外匯儲備多元化政策實際上也許會導(dǎo)致對美國國債的更多需求。

　　情況是這樣的：中國在促進(jìn)外匯儲備向美國國債等以美元面值的資產(chǎn)以外多元化時，會購買以其最大的貿(mào)易伙伴國的貨幣為面值的債券。這些貿(mào)易伙伴不希望失去自己的競爭力，反過來就會購買美元以保持本國貨幣處于較低水平。

　　作為推動多元化的一部分，中國也是日圓的主要購買者，根據(jù)日本財務(wù)省（Japanese Ministry of Finance），中國今年迄今已搶購了價值270億美元的日圓。分析師說中國的購買行為使得已經(jīng)高漲的日圓再度走強。

　　現(xiàn)在，日本面臨削弱日圓的壓力，轉(zhuǎn)而購買美元，并很可能以美國國債的形式購買。還不清楚日本需要購買多少美元才能阻止日圓繼續(xù)升值，但很有可能高于中國為促進(jìn)多元化購買的日圓。前事不忘后事之師，日本在2003年到2004年的上一次匯市干預(yù)中投入了3200億美元。根據(jù)國際清算銀行（Bank for International Settlements）的統(tǒng)計，當(dāng)下的匯市中美元和日圓之間每日成交額為5680億美元，與上次干預(yù)相比增加了73%.

　　這種狀況并非日本獨有。中國還購買了韓國的韓圓。韓國經(jīng)常干預(yù)匯市，購買美元以避免韓圓上升太快，這又抵消了中國為了外儲多元化對韓圓的購買。

　　Don't Worry About China,Japan Will Finance U.S. Debt China has been diversifying its $2.5 trillion reserves away from the dollar,causing some to worry that less Chinese buying of Treasurys would cause U.S. interest rates to rise and make it more difficult for the government to borrow.

　　But Japan's dollar buying in currency markets Wednesday shows Chinese reserve diversification might actually lead to even more demand for Treasurys.

　　Here's how. As China diversifies out of U.S. dollar-denominated assets such as Treasurys,it is buying debt denominated in the currencies of some of its biggest trading partners. Not wanting to lose competitiveness themselves,those trading partners in turn buy dollars to keep their currencies cheap.

　　As part of the diversification push,China has been a major buyer of yen,snapping up $27 billion in yen so far this year according to Japanese Ministry of Finance. Analysts say China's buying has helped an already strong yen get stronger.

　　Now,Japan,feeling under pressure to weaken its currency,turned around and bought dollars,most likely in the form of Treasurys. It isn't clear exactly how much dollar buying Japan will have to do to protect the yen from getting stronger,but it's likely to more than offset China's diversification into the yen. If the past is a guide,Japan spent $320 billion in its last intervention from 2003 to 2004. And this time the currency markets are 73% far larger,with $568 billion dollar-yen trading a day,according to the Bank for International Settlements.

　　Japan is not alone in this phenomenon. China has also bought South Korea's currency,the won. And South Korea routinely intervenes in currency markets,buying dollars to keep its currency from rising too quickly,again offsetting China's move out of the dollar.